GOLDEN GOALS
Win whoever wins
Did y'all know that entirely some 10% of all
football matches destination inwards a 0-0 draw? Think close that for a minute....
What if in that location was a reliable way to turn a profit from the other
90%... No affair who wins... No affair if it’s a draw.... No affair if there’s 1 goal or 10..... That would live a whole lot of winning, right? RIGHT!
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There IS a way. And inwards this e-book I’m going to demo y'all the most
reliable way that I’ve institute to turn a profit from a massive amount of football
matches.
Allowing y'all to rake inwards tax-free cash agree later match, flavour after
season in addition to yr later year.
But firstly I’ll tell y'all what this organisation is not.
Many similar systems y'all may receive got seen revolve some either
laying the 0-0 scoreline or backing the over 0.5 markets.
Let’s aspect at these inwards turn.
Laying 0-0 inwards a agree where goals are expected tin nowadays y'all alongside odds inwards the high teens. For example, that tin leave of absence y'all alongside a potential outlay of £170 to win merely £10 if y'all were to lay at odds of 18.0.
You mightiness shout back it’s a ‘sure thing’ but I’m sure y'all know in that location actually is no such thing in addition to 1 twenty-four hr stream fifty-fifty the most unlikely agree WILL destination 0-0 in addition to chop-chop clear y'all of weeks worth of profit.
The same goes for backing over 0.5 goals.
In matches where goals are actually expected to give y'all tin detect this
bet offered for no to a greater extent than than some 1.04.
That leaves y'all having to house a bet of £250 to win merely a
tenner!
I don’t shout back so!
With this organisation in that location are NO crazy bets or Massive liabilities
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What is trading?
Until some 2000 your entirely selection when y'all wanted to house a bet was to practice so alongside a traditional bookmaker where y'all would house a bet on the outcome of an lawsuit at odds laid past times the bookie.
The advent of betting exchanges changed all that forever when they
introduced the concept of giving everybody the risk to play bookie
by matching punters who wanted to both house in addition to receive got bets.
When combined alongside in-play betting this brings a wealth of
opportunities to both house (back) in addition to receive got (lay) bets on the outcome
of an lawsuit to guarantee a turn a profit earlier the lawsuit has fifty-fifty ended.
The biggest in addition to most pop telephone substitution past times far is ‘Betfair’ who
themselves receive got some first-class tutorials in addition to educational activity on their website to explicate fully how the telephone substitution works, but briefly the catch is to receive got a bet (lay) - which inwards the illustration inwards a higher house are the odds on the right inwards pink- in addition to to every bit good dorsum the same outcome at higher odds - which are the odds inwards bluish on the left.
This isn’t possible to practice this on the same telephone substitution at the same fourth dimension every bit lay odds volition ever live higher than dorsum odds but every bit an lawsuit progresses the odds modify to give y'all the chance to practice so.
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For example, If Arsenal are playing Liverpool in addition to I felt sure that the agree would non destination inwards a describe I could ‘lay’ the describe at odds of 3.6. At the start of the agree the odds to dorsum the describe are 3.55 which is lower than the lay odds so I would receive got to pay out to a greater extent than than I won at the destination of the match, pregnant I would thence brand a loss at this time.
If nonetheless I hold off till a goal is scored in addition to so a describe would appear less probable so the odds to dorsum the describe would ascension to, let’s say, 8.0. I would in addition to so dorsum the describe to embrace both outcomes in addition to guarantee a turn a profit no affair how the agree ends.
For Example:
If I house a lay bet of £10.00 on the describe at 3.6 in addition to so I am proverb that I shout back that the agree volition NOT destination inwards a draw. If it does in addition to so I receive got to pay out at those odds every bit a bookmaker would, which agency I receive got a liability of £26.00 which I would pay to individual who had placed an opposing bet on a describe occurring.
Now if I was to every bit good dorsum the describe for £5.00 at odds of 8.0 1 time the goal was scored in addition to so I receive got secured a turn a profit no affair what else happens, every bit to embrace my liability of £26.00 I would win £35.00. And if the agree didn’t describe every bit I initially catch in addition to so I would lose my dorsum bet of £5.00 but win my lay amount of £10.00 .
This is merely a brief illustration of how trading industrial plant in addition to for those
totally novel it volition all instruct clearer every bit y'all progress.
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Match Selection
Though nosotros already know that entirely some 10% of football game matches destination inwards a 0-0 describe nosotros desire to pick out the risk of a 0-0 downwards fifty-fifty farther and, obviously, nosotros practice that past times finding matches where a few goals are expected.
The most easiest in addition to most accurate way to practice that without spending hours in addition to hours studying both teams recent form, the line-up for the match, their house inwards the tabular array etc etc... Is to aspect at merely ii odds on the Betfair markets.
1. We desire matches inwards which in that location is a strong favourite alongside odds below
2.0.
2. We desire matches where OVER 2.5 goals every bit good has odds below 2.0 and
is favoured compared to UNDER 2.5 goals.
If nosotros aspect at results from iv of the large leagues for the 2012/2013 sea-
son we’ll run into merely how effective that tin be:
SPANISH PRIMERIA
149 of 380 matches met the criteria.
Only 3 of those ended 0-0 = 2.01%
ITALIAN SERIE A
100 of 380 met the criteria.
Only 3 of those ended 0-0 = 3%
GERMAN BUNDESLIGA
144 of 306 matches met the criteria.
Only seven of those ended 0-0 = 4.86%
ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP
189 of 380 matches met criteria.
Only thirteen of those ended 0-0 = 6.88%
THE STRATEGY
Our strategy revolves some placing an initial lay bet on the UNDER 1.5 goals market, so to trim back whatever potential liabilities nosotros concentrate on matches that nosotros selected that every bit good receive got nether 1.5 goal lay odds of no to a greater extent than than 4.9 pre-match.
To lessen liabilities fifty-fifty farther nosotros hold off until the agree has started in addition to aim to instruct inwards the marketplace past times laying at no to a greater extent than than 3.8. In matches that started at some 4.9 or less this should give inwards some 10-15 minutes without a goal. Should in that location live an early on goal in addition to so it’s a ‘no bet’ in addition to deed on to the next, there’s enough to a greater extent than in addition to there’s no take away to break yourself to unnecessary liabilities.
I would suggest a total of 4 units from a 100 unit of measurement banking company per match.
AT THIS TIME WE SPLIT OUR 4 UNITS IN HALF AND ONLY PLACE
2 AT THIS TIME
This is because nosotros merchandise out of the game in addition to secure our turn a profit past times back-
ing the right score marketplace 1 time a goal is scored.
A goal inwards the start one-half tin run into the odds of it remaining 1-0 or 0-1 growth to anything some 10.0 or more, sometimes upward to the mid to high teens inwards matches which are expected to live peculiarly high scoring.
If nosotros decease dorsum to the large leagues lastly season:
PRIMERIA
Of 149 matches that met criteria, 146 saw goals.
131 saw a goal inwards the start one-half = 89.73%
SERIE A
Of 100 that met criteria, 97 saw goals.
62 saw a goal inwards the start one-half = 69.07%
BUNDESLIGA
144 met criteria, 137 saw goals.
115 saw a goal inwards the start one-half = 83.94%
PREMIERSHIP
189 met criteria, 176 saw goals.
136 saw a goal inwards the start one-half = 77.27%
As y'all tin run into inwards the vast bulk of matches y'all volition live trading out at
high odds in addition to securing a expert turn a profit real early on inwards the match.
However, obviously, every bit the agree progresses should it remain 0-0 into the 2nd one-half in addition to so then the odds of it remaining 1-0 inwards the right score marketplace volition lessen inwards comparing to later an early on goal. Though fifty-fifty inwards the 75th - 80th infinitesimal a goal tin soundless growth the 1-0 odds to good inwards excess of 5.0
To scrap this nosotros re-enter a goal-less agree past times placing some other lay bet, 1 time again on the nether 1.5 market, alongside the remaining 2 units of our stake
WHEN THE ODDS OF UNDER 1.5 LAY HAVE DROPPED TO 1.5.
This allows us to minimize whatever potential losses drastically allowing us
to remain inwards the agree far longer than other similar strategies.
By splitting our stake inwards this way nosotros entirely take away 1-0 odds of some 2.7 to ensure that nosotros practice non lose on that match, in addition to odds similar this tin live seen fifty-fifty from very, real belatedly goals.
EXIT POINT
On the real rare occasion that all is looking hopeless y'all locomote out the agree past times placing a BACK bet to embrace both lay bets on the nether 1.5 marketplace when odds of 1.1 are reached.
Reaching the locomote out request volition hateful a loss for that agree of less than 6
units.
Examples
We detect a premiership match, Man U v Stoke
Man U are clear favorite alongside odds of 1.35 compared to Stoke at 12.0.
Over 2.5 goals is favoured alongside odds of 1.84 compared to 2.16 for under.
Pre-match lay odds for Under 1.5 goals are 4.8.
All criteria are met so nosotros monitor this agree from boot off.
12 minutes into the agree its soundless goal-less in addition to odds of laying nether 1.5
have dropped to 3.8.
We instruct inwards our stake based on a starting banking company of £500 in addition to nosotros purpose a total
stake of 4 units per agree which is £20.
WE DIVIDE OUR 4 UNITS IN HALF AT THIS TIME AND PLACE A
LAY OF ONLY 2 UNITS AT 3.8
Man U instruct 1 inwards at the 20 infinitesimal mark!
More goals than this are expected so the odds of it remaining 1-0 inwards the
correct score marketplace rocket to 14.0 1 time the marketplace returns.
We forthwith dorsum 1-0 at 14.0 alongside £2.71 (a back/lay reckoner is
needed for this. See terminal page for recommended).
This locks inwards a turn a profit from our £10 initial stake of £6.92 minus
commission.
Or alternatively, it remains 0-0 into one-half fourth dimension in addition to at the 50 infinitesimal mark
under 1.5 lay odds receive got dropped to 1.5.
We house some other lay bet alongside our remaining 2 units of £10 at these odds
to give us 2 lay bets at different odds on nether 1.5 goals.
At threescore minutes Stoke grapple a lucky goal!
An equalizer from Man U would seem probable alongside thirty minutes soundless to
play so 1 time the marketplace returns y'all tin dorsum 0-1 for odds of 7.4.
Backing the 0-1 at these odds volition run into a guaranteed turn a profit of £4.62 from our lay at 3.8 in addition to a turn a profit of £7.57 from our lay at 1.5 to give us a total turn a profit from our £20 total stake of £12.19 later commission.
Or alternatively both teams defenses are working good at at the 80th
Examples
We detect a premiership match, Man U v Stoke
Man U are clear favorite alongside odds of 1.35 compared to Stoke at 12.0.
Over 2.5 goals is favoured alongside odds of 1.84 compared to 2.16 for under.
Pre-match lay odds for Under 1.5 goals are 4.8.
All criteria are met so nosotros monitor this agree from boot off.
12 minutes into the agree its soundless goal-less in addition to odds of laying nether 1.5
have dropped to 3.8.
We instruct inwards our stake based on a starting banking company of £500 in addition to nosotros purpose a total
stake of 4 units per agree which is £20.
WE DIVIDE OUR 4 UNITS IN HALF AT THIS TIME AND PLACE A
LAY OF ONLY 2 UNITS AT 3.8
Man U instruct 1 inwards at the 20 infinitesimal mark!
More goals than this are expected so the odds of it remaining 1-0 inwards the
correct score marketplace rocket to 14.0 1 time the marketplace returns.
We forthwith dorsum 1-0 at 14.0 alongside £2.71 (a back/lay reckoner is
needed for this. See terminal page for recommended).
This locks inwards a turn a profit from our £10 initial stake of £6.92 minus
commission.
Or alternatively, it remains 0-0 into one-half fourth dimension in addition to at the 50 infinitesimal mark
under 1.5 lay odds receive got dropped to 1.5.
We house some other lay bet alongside our remaining 2 units of £10 at these odds
to give us 2 lay bets at different odds on nether 1.5 goals.
At threescore minutes Stoke grapple a lucky goal!
An equalizer from Man U would seem probable alongside thirty minutes soundless to
play so 1 time the marketplace returns y'all tin dorsum 0-1 for odds of 7.4.
Backing the 0-1 at these odds volition run into a guaranteed turn a profit of £4.62 from our lay at 3.8 in addition to a turn a profit of £7.57 from our lay at 1.5 to give us a total turn a profit from our £20 total stake of £12.19 later commission.
Or alternatively both teams defenses are working good at at the 80th
minute the odds of backing nether 1.5 goals receive got dropped to 1.1.
We dorsum at these odds to minimize whatever farther losses to embrace both lay
bets.
This volition give us a loss of £3.64 on the 1.5 lay in addition to a loss of £24.55 on the 3.8 lay to leave of absence us alongside a total loss of £28.19 which equates to nether six units.
Basically what we’re doing alongside this strategy is finding a way to ,in
effect, lay the 0-0 describe for odds of below 7, whilst soundless beingness able to
profit early on inwards the match.
In matches where goals are a certainty that is something that y'all would
otherwise detect totally impossible to do.
For instance the Man U v Stoke agree that I receive got used for example
above has pre-match 0-0 lay odds of 16.5!
AS previously said in that location IS NO such thing every bit a sure bet but betting against 0-0 inwards the right agree sure is every bit unopen every bit y'all tin get. Of the
combined large leagues inwards 2012/13 that nosotros receive got used every bit examples inwards this
strategy entirely 5% of those ended inwards a 0-0 draw.
By staking inwards the right way to maximize profits in addition to minimize losses
from the other 95% y'all WILL win long term.
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