At The Terminate Of The Outset Set

AT THE END OF THE FIRST SET

Clearly, especially inward best of 3 set matches, winning the outset set is a huge payoff as the winner only needs to win 1 to a greater extent than set to win the match.

But how much of an payoff is it?

If you lot did a survey of gamblers as well as pundits, you lot in all probability would larn a diverseness of extreme answers from ‘almost guaranteed to win’ to ‘it’s but 1 set out of three’. I don’t bargain inward speculation so I receive got all the statistics necessary to approximate but how much of an payoff a outset set win really is.

WTA:-

Winning the outset set

Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 96% (1.04 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 94% (1.06 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 90% (1.11 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 77% (1.30 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 63% (1.59 implied odds) Win Percentage for transcend 100 players when won the outset set (any SP) = 87%

Losing the outset set

Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 48% (2.08 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 39% (2.56 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 30% (3.33 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 15% (6.67 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 11% (9.09 implied odds) Win Percentage for transcend 100 players when losing the outset set (any SP) = 22%

Before I analyse the statistics, the eagle eyed alongside you lot may receive got noticed that the win pct for transcend 100 players when won the outset set is 87% but when losing the outset set is 22%, as well as you lot are in all probability wondering why it doesn’t add together upward to 100%. That’s because sometimes, transcend 100 players play players exterior the transcend 100…

From these statistics at that topographic point are several areas that involvement me. Using the centre of each cost arrive at (clearly this is non exact, but it should hold upward pretty reasonable), nosotros tin sack order that a instrumentalist that starts at 1.11 should receive got a cost of 1.04 if they win the outset set – that’s pretty much spot on. However, if that instrumentalist loses the outset set, would they become to 2.08? That’s incredibly unlikely inward my opinion. I experience that inward the best of 3 WTA match, they’d silent hold upward odds-on later losing the outset set. This province of affairs is almost for sure due to the weight of coin supporting the favourite when they are losing – it’s a mutual entry betoken for many traders as well as is clearly illustrated inward that example.

This tin sack hold upward farther considered past times the success of pre-match underdogs priced 3.00-5.99 when winning the outset set. These players win on average 63%, from a centre starting cost of 4.50. Would a instrumentalist starting at 4.50 hold upward 1.59 later winning the outset set? That’s fairly unlikely, inward my opinion. I experience that they’d in all probability hold upward a petty bigger than this – 1 time to a greater extent than lending weight to the declaration that backing heavy favourites when losing is hapless value due to the marketplace forces keeping the cost of the heavy favourite lower than it should be.

Therefore nosotros tin sack assume that backing the favourite inward the WTA when a set down, applied as a blanket strategy, is a losing one. Having said that, I’m sure that used selectively it tin sack make profit.

I also compiled the same statistics for the ATP.

ATP:-

Winning the outset set

Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 99% (1.01 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 95% (1.05 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 91% (1.10 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 74% (1.35 implied odds) Win Percentage when won the outset set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 61% (1.64 implied odds) Win Percentage for transcend 100 players when won the outset set (any SP) = 84%

Losing the outset set

Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 1.01-1.20 = 67% (1.49 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 1.01-1.50 = 44% (2.27 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 1.01-2.00 = 37% (2.70 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 2.00-2.99 = 17% (5.88 implied odds) Win Percentage when lost the outset set with SP 3.00-5.99 = 9% (11.11 implied odds) Win Percentage for transcend 100 players when lost the outset set (any SP) = 25%

As nosotros tin sack come across from comparison the WTA stats with the ATP stats above, favourites clearly relish a bigger payoff inward the men’s game than they make inward the women’s when winning the outset set. However, overall nosotros come across that the women mostly win to a greater extent than matches when a set up, due to the increased win percentages for underdogs. The 2 underdog cost brackets inward the ATP had a lower average win pct than for the WTA – so men’s favourites tend to hold upward able to come upward dorsum as well as win inward 3 sets to a greater extent than oft than women’s favourites. The statistics on losing the outset set dorsum that upward – men priced betwixt 1.01 as well as 1.20 come upward dorsum on average 67% of the fourth dimension which is a huge increment on the women’s 48%. Not only that, but the win pct cost 1.01-1.50 was bigger for the men (44% to 39%), as well as it was likewise for the cost 1.01-2.00 (37% to 30%).

I personally consider that men favourites tend to come upward dorsum to a greater extent than than men’s because of the bigger gap inward fitness, as well as to some extent mental strength. I really believe that a neat bargain of lawn tennis is played inward the mind. Some men as well as women players are very, real weak inward the mental strength subdivision as well as also lack fitness, peculiarly inward the 3rd set. These deficiencies volition foreclose them from reaching the levels that their mightiness warrants. If you lot come across a instrumentalist who is strong or weak mentally or physically, brand a complaint of that. It’s a complaint that could earn you lot a lot of coin inward the future…

Another component that influences the marketplace cost later the outset set is the actual outset set scoreline. Logically, many people consider that the instrumentalist that enjoys the bigger payoff inward the outset set should hold upward so dominant that the minute set is a mere formality.

However, that isn’t necessarily the case. We saw inward the French Open Quarter Final on June

4^th, 2013, a prime number instance of that.

Serena Williams started her quarter in conclusion jibe with Svetlana Kuznetsova as heavy favourite at 1.07. She dominated Kuznetsova inward the outset set, winning it 6-1. Only the extremely optimistic Kuznetsova fan would hold off Kuznetsova to hold upward able to plough the jibe approximately but she almost managed it, taking the minute set 6-3 as well as leading 2-0 inward the 3rd set. Kuznetsova really traded as slight favourite at approximately 1.80 at that point. Clearly fifty-fifty with extremely heavy favourites winning the outset set past times a dominant margin, winning the jibe is far from a formality.

So as usual, several years agone I decided that having an sentiment wasn’t plenty as well as decided to investigate the statistics further…

I sampled a large disclose of mens as well as womens matches, with whatever starting cost as well as instrumentalist rank considered as well as obtained the next results:-

ATP:-

6-0 outset set – win pct = 92% 6-1 outset set – win pct = 86% 6-2 outset set – win pct = 86% 6-3 outset set – win pct = 86% 6-4 outset set – win pct = 79% 7-5 outset set – win pct = 84% 7-6 outset set – win pct = 76%

WTA:

6-0 outset set – win pct = 97% 6-1 outset set – win pct = 89% 6-2 outset set – win pct = 90% 6-3 outset set – win pct = 81% 6-4 outset set – win pct = 83% 7-5 outset set – win pct = 77% 7-6 outset set – win pct = 79%

From these statistics, nosotros tin sack come across that mostly the closer the outset set score the lower the success charge per unit of measurement is for winning the match, with at that topographic point mostly beingness a driblet from the 6-0 to 6-3 scoreline inward the ATP to the 6-4 to 7-6 scorelines, as well as the 6-0 to 6-2 scorelines inward the WTA to the 6-4 to 7-6 scorelines.

If nosotros discovery an over-reaction inward the marketplace later a unopen set, especially inward situations where a instrumentalist gets broken at *5-6 or loses a tight tiebreak, nosotros tin sack oft obtain expert value because clearly inward those situations the jibe win pct for the outset set winner volition hold upward at the lowest possible figures.

Another surface area nosotros tin sack human face at when the outset set is completed is a player’s tape when a set downward or up. Some players receive got a real negative mentality when they driblet the outset set, whereas it inspires others to come upward back. Some players larn complacent when they driblet the outset set, or lack self belief that they tin sack win. It’s of import to know which players autumn into the diverse categories.

The Australian legend Rod Laver had the highest career win pct a set down, winning an incredible 48.4% of matches from that point. Out of the electrical flow players, Rafael Nadal’s

42.1% is the highest, as well as unsurprisingly he as well as the other electrical flow transcend 3 players brand upward the transcend five electrical flow players over the career stats, along with Lleyton Hewitt.

However, Hewitt’s inclusion hither clearly shows the danger of looking at career stats. His career is clearly on the wane, as well as you lot tin sack debate the same for Roger Federer to some extent as well. I prefer to human face at the 12 calendar month stats for jibe situations, personally.

Here’s some 12 calendar month stats (correct at June 2013):-

Good players when a set up:-

Roger Federer 98.08%

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 97.87%

Kei Nishikori 97.44%

Rafael Nadal 97.22%

Alejandro Falla 96.30%

Novak Djokovic 95.45%

Juan Martin Del Potro 93.02%

David Ferrer 92.86%

Dimitry Tursunov 92.86%

Fabio Fognini 92.59%

Tommy Robredo 91.43%

Leonardo Mayer 91.30%

Jerzy Janowicz 90.70%

Tomas Berdych 90.20%

Marcel Granollers 90.00%

Bad players when a set up:-

Carlos Berlocq 70.83%

Go Soeda 71.43%

Julien Benneteau 74.19%

Fernando Verdasco 75.00%

Martin Klizan 75.00%

Gilles Muller 76.00%

Jurgen Melzer 76.19%

Robby Ginepri 76.47%

Lukasz Kubot 76.92%

Ivan Dodig 77.50%

Edouard Roger-Vasselin 77.78%

Frederico Gil 77.78%

Steve Darcis 78.12%

Radek Stepanek 78.26%

Denis Istomin 78.57%

From these stats nosotros tin sack come across which players thrive when a gear upward as well as which receive got a lot to a greater extent than difficulty converting a set payoff to a jibe win. Whilst it’s worth noting that many of those ATP players with expert records a gear upward are transcend players, it’s non solely the case.

Clearly the listing of players higher upward who receive got bad records a gear upward volition give you lot an thought of who it could hold upward feasible to lay when a set up.

What is also useful is to come across which players make good when a set down, as well as which players tend to moving ridge the white flag inward those situations. Again, these are 12 calendar month stats right at June 2013.

Good players a set down:-

Rafael Nadal 70.00%

Novak Djokovic 61.90%

Andy Murray 55.56%

David Ferrer 50.00%

Ernests Gulbis 42.31%

Stanislas Wawrinka 40.91%

Richard Gasquet 39.13%

Jerzy Janowicz 38.46%

Juan Martin Del Potro 38.10%

Tomas Berdych 36.36%

Sam Querrey 35.71%

Daniel Brands 35.71%

Thomaz Bellucci 34.62%

Note: Roger Federer won only 31.58% of matches where he dropped the outset set inward the in conclusion 12 months. You may good wonder why I order ‘only’ when this is silent higher upward ATP average. However, it’s of import to realise that his starting cost volition almost ever hold upward extremely low

– which cannot hold upward said for the average player. Furthermore, inward his career he has won 41.35% of matches where he lost the outset set, so the 12 calendar month figures signal a pregnant turn down inward his fortunes when inward this situation.

Bad players a set downward (12 calendar month stats at June 2013):-

Alejandro Falla 3.57%

Fernando Verdasco 5.26%

Ivo Karlovic 5.56%

Bjorn Phau 6.67%

Michael Llodra 6.67%

Santiago Giraldo 8.70%

Jesse Levine 9.52%

Tobias Kamke 9.68%

Juan Monaco 10.00%

Albert Ramos 11.54%

Grigor Dimitrov 12.00%

Ivan Dodig 12.50%

Ryan Harrison 12.50%

Flavio Cipolla 12.90%

Radek Stepanek 13.33%

Robin Haase 13.33%

Jan Hajek 13.64%

Go Soeda 13.79%

Lukas Lacko 13.79%

Philipp Petzschner 14.29%

Roberto Bautista-Agut 15.00%

Adrian Ungur 15.38%

Xavier Malisse 16.00%

Nikolay Davydenko 16.00%

Pablo Andujar 16.13%

Whilst it’s definitely fair to order that most of the higher upward players that perform badly when a set downward are at the lower cease of the ATP tour, at that topographic point are some notable higher degree players inward this sample – the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Juan Monaco, Grigor Dimitrov, Radek Stepanek as well as Nikolay Davydenko are all much to a greater extent than illustrious names than most on the list. It would hold upward wise to hold upward cautious close backing these players when losing.

Naturally, I also performed the same query for the WTA, as well as here’s the 12 calendar month stats

(also right at June 2013):-

Good players when a set up:-

Greta Arn 100.00%

Sofia Arvidsson 100.00%

Serena Williams 98.53%

Victoria Azarenka 98.15%

Urzsula Radwanska 97.22%

Maria Sharapova 96.43%

Agniezska Radwanska 95.56%

Venus Williams 95.45%

Maria Kirilenko 95.00%

Ayumi Morita 93.10%

Elena Vesnina 92.59%

Ana Ivanovic 92.31%

Anastasia Rodionova 92.31%

Eugenie Bouchard 92.31%

Melanie Oudin 92.31%

Polona Hercog 92.31%

Jamie Hampton 92.00%

Bad players when a set up:-

Jarmila Gajdosova 50.00% (small sample of 10 matches)

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 58.33%

Anabel Medina Garrigues 65.00%

Olga Govortsova 65.22%

Yaroslava Shvedova 65.38%

Mathilde Johansson 66.67%

Ksenia Pervak 68.75%

Tsvetana Pironkova 68.75%

Francesca Schiavone 70.83%

Arantxa Rus 71.43%

Shahar Peer 73.68%

Misaki Doi 74.19%

Sabine Lisicki 75.00%

Vania King 76.19%

Andrea Petkovic 76.47%

Vera Dushevina 77.42%

Julia Goerges 78.12%

Heather Watson 78.26%

Lourdes Dominguez Lino 78.57%

Mandy Minella 79.17%

Dominika Cibulkova 79.31%

Jelena Jankovic 79.49%

As with the ATP, many of the players with a expert tape a gear upward are transcend twenty players.

However, it’s worth noting that Arn, Arvidsson, Bouchard, Morita, Oudin, Rodionova as well as Hercog are much lower ranked as well as I’d hold upward dubious close currently opposing them when they receive got the outset set.

Urszula Radwanska is an interesting case. She has a superb tape when a set up, but is a highly inconsistent instrumentalist generally, with the mightiness to assay higher ranked players, but as to lose inward 2 comfortable sets to much lower ranked opposition. It would appear from stats, as well as also when I’ve seen her play, that she is a real confidence orientated player.

Some of the women’s records when a gear upward are horrific. Gamblers inward item speculate close some women’s players mental strength – the phrase ‘mental midget’ is oft used, as well as clearly these statistics render some show of that.

It’s real interesting to come across that Carlos Berlocq was the worst ATP performer when a gear upward with a 70.83% winrate – however, that would receive got set him but equal 8th on the WTA list. Considering that the marketplace normally prices women’s favourites as a shorter cost (correctly) than the equivalent priced men’s favourites when a set up, opposing the names higher upward with a bad tape when a favourite should render a positive expectation over the long term. Interestingly at that topographic point were many high profile players inward the listing of poorly performing players when a gear upward that oft start as a strong favourite – Schiavone (particularly on clay), Lisicki, Petkovic, Goerges, Cibulkova as well as Jankovic all regularly start odds on, as well as oft curt odds on. Opposing these players when a gear upward should hold upward extremely lucrative.

Good players when a set down:-

Serena Williams 71.43%

Kirsten Flipkens 50.00%

Victoria Azarenka 45.45%

Lauren Davis 40.00%

Maria Sharapova 38.46%

Petra Kvitova 37.04%

Monica Puig 35.71%

Stefanie Voegele 35.29%

Vania King 34.78%

Svetlana Kuznetsova 33.33%

Venus Williams 33.33%

Lourdes Dominguez Lino 32.14%

Nadia Petrova 31.58%

Polona Hercog 31.25%

Bad players when a set down:-

Arantxa Rus 0.00%

Pauline Parmentier 4.00%

Coco Vandeweghe 5.26%

Greta Arn 5.56%

Sofia Arvidsson 7.69%

Jarmila Gajdosova 8.33%

Varvara Lepchenko 8.70%

Anastasia Rodionova 9.09%

Kristina Mladenovic 9.09%

Yaroslava Shvedova 9.09%

Alberta Brianti 9.52%

Shahar Peer 9.52%

Andrea Petkovic 10.00%

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 10.00%

Lucie Hradecka 10.53%

Marina Erakovic 11.11%

Tsvetana Pironkova 12.50%

Christina McHale 13.04%

Julia Goerges 13.04%

Kimiko Date Krumm 13.04%

Su-Wei Hsieh 13.64%

Laura Pous-Tio 14.29%

Mona Barthel 14.29%

Sara Errani 14.29%

Lucie Safarova 14.81%

Misaki Doi 14.81%

Yanina Wickmayer 14.81%

Marion Bartoli 15.00%

Daniela Hantuchova 15.15%

Madison Keys 15.79%

Bethanie Mattek-Sands 15.79%

Sam Stosur 16.00%

Considering the average for winning the jibe when a set downward inward the WTA is 22%, some of these figures are as horrific as the figures regarding win pct when a set up. There would receive got to hold upward huge value offered to desire to dorsum a instrumentalist on this listing when a set down. Again, at that topographic point are several transcend players on the listing – Goerges, Barthel, Errani, Safarova, Wickmayer, Hantuchova, Stosur all receive got a decent reputation as well as inward some cases their yell volition guarantee a curt cost inward the market, fifty-fifty when losing. If they start as heavy favourite, which they oft do, as well as their cost is approximately evens or a petty bigger when a set down, it’s hard to justify backing them on the terra firma of these statistics.

The in conclusion matter nosotros postulate to consider at the cease of the outset set is our staking. If, for some reason, nosotros create upward one's hear to dorsum the winner of the outset set, this is slightly less of a describe organisation because at that topographic point volition hold upward a betoken during the minute set or 3rd set where nosotros tin sack at to the lowest degree larn some of our stake back. However, if nosotros lay the winner of the outset set, as well as and so they receive got the Pb inward the minute set, or larn unopen to winning it, nosotros receive got a employment because their cost volition hold upward real curt – therefore leading to a large pct loss of our stake. This is less of a employment if nosotros receive got set the winner of the outset set at a real depression cost already, as our hazard is much smaller compared to our reward. However, if a heavy underdog wins the outset set, as well as nosotros create upward one's hear to lay them, nosotros receive got a bigger problem.

For instance – a heavy favourite starting betwixt 1.20 as well as 1.25 loses the outset set. Their cost will, at that point, mostly hold upward approximately the 2.00 m

Serena Williams 71.43%

Kirsten Flipkens 50.00%

Victoria Azarenka 45.45%

Lauren Davis 40.00%

Maria Sharapova 38.46%

Petra Kvitova 37.04%

Monica Puig 35.71%

Stefanie Voegele 35.29%

Vania King 34.78%

Svetlana Kuznetsova 33.33%

Venus Williams 33.33%

Lourdes Dominguez Lino 32.14%

Nadia Petrova 31.58%

Polona Hercog 31.25%

Bad players when a set down:-

Arantxa Rus 0.00%

Pauline Parmentier 4.00%

Coco Vandeweghe 5.26%

Greta Arn 5.56%

Sofia Arvidsson 7.69%

Jarmila Gajdosova 8.33%

Varvara Lepchenko 8.70%

Anastasia Rodionova 9.09%

Kristina Mladenovic 9.09%

Yaroslava Shvedova 9.09%

Alberta Brianti 9.52%

Shahar Peer 9.52%

Andrea Petkovic 10.00%

Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez 10.00%

Lucie Hradecka 10.53%

Marina Erakovic 11.11%

Tsvetana Pironkova 12.50%

Christina McHale 13.04%

Julia Goerges 13.04%

Kimiko Date Krumm 13.04%

Su-Wei Hsieh 13.64%

Laura Pous-Tio 14.29%

Mona Barthel 14.29%

Sara Errani 14.29%

Lucie Safarova 14.81%

Misaki Doi 14.81%

Yanina Wickmayer 14.81%

Marion Bartoli 15.00%

Daniela Hantuchova 15.15%

Madison Keys 15.79%

Bethanie Mattek-Sands 15.79%

Sam Stosur 16.00%

For instance – a heavy favourite starting betwixt 1.20 as well as 1.25 loses the outset set. Their cost will, at that point, mostly hold upward approximately the 2.00 mark, give or receive got a few ticks either way. If you lot dorsum them at this price, as well as the minute set goes on serve, with no breaks, to a scoreline similar 4-4, as well as the favourite gets broken, you lot are inward severe danger of losing almost all your stake if you lot merchandise out when the underdog is serving for the jibe at *5-4. Whilst having a high degree of hazard isn’t necessarily a employment to experienced traders or those with a high hazard tolerance, it’s vital that all traders, especially novices, are aware of the potential implications. As I mentioned previously – favourites that lose the outset set make non ever come upward back! This is something that in-play gamblers definitely postulate to acquit inward hear if they create upward one's hear to receive got a longer term seat at the cease of the outset set.

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